Pelfrey hopes for a rebound in LA

Baseball Betting Lines

07/24/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Mike Pelfrey hopes to bounce back from the shortest start of his career this evening when the New York Mets continue their four-game set with the Los Angeles Dodgers at Dodger Stadium.

Pelfrey could not make it out of the second inning on Monday in Arizona, as the Diamondbacks hammered him for six runs and seven hits in 1 1/3 frames.

It was the third straight loss for Pelfrey, who fell to 10-5 on the year. He is now winless in his last four starts, and has failed to get out of the fifth inning in each of those outings, while surrendering 28 runs in 14 2/3 innings of those starts to balloon his earned run average from 2.71 to 4.01.

"I'm going through one of the worst stretches of my life. I don't know if I've ever had four starts in a row without getting out of the fifth inning," Pelfrey said. "I think tonight was definitely the shortest outing of my life, it's frustrating, I think I've gotten away from establishing the fastball, seems like I'm trying to establish three, four pitches at once, early in the game and that's not who I am. So I need to get back to using the fastball, establishing that to make the other pitches better."

It won't get any easier for the 26-year-old right-hander tonight, as he is 0-1 with a 5.40 ERA in two starts against the Dodgers, who have hit him at a .341 clip.

New York managed a rare road win on Friday, as Johan Santana silenced the Dodgers for seven innings, and the Mets' offense awoke from a two-week slumber in a 6-1 victory at Chavez Ravine.

The Mets were held to four runs or less in each of their previous 13 games, but a balanced attack with the bats and Santana's arm helped the club to their second win in nine games since the All-Star break.

Santana (8-5) surrendered just one run on five hits and a walk to go with four strikeouts in the win. The left-hander has gone at least seven frames and given up one run or less in his last five outings.

Jason Bay went 2-for-4 with three RBI, Ike Davis hit a solo home run, and Jose Reyes doubled, walked, stole a base and scored two runs for the victors.

Vicente Padilla (4-3) took the look despite allowing a mere two runs -- one earned -- on six hits in seven innings for Los Angeles, which won the opener of this four-game series, 2-0, on Thursday.

"Padilla pitched sensational. We just couldn't get any offense going. Santana works fast and you don't get many opportunities against him," Dodgers manager Joe Torre said. "We've been struggling offensively."

Los Angeles, meanwhile, will pin its hopes tonight on righty Carlos Monasterios, who will be making his seventh start of the season. Monasterios has been tremendous coming out of the bullpen for the Dodgers, pitching to a 1.75 ERA in 14 appearances. However, he has struggled in his six starts, going 2-2 with a 5.40 ERA.

Monasterios will be making his first-ever start against the Mets, but he did throw two scoreless innings of relief against them back on April 27.

The Mets have lost 10 of 15 games in Hollywood since the 2007 season.

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Sportsbooks to bet on football

Recently I had an email debate with an angry reader who said I did not understand "the science of oddsmaking", as he called it.

He said I was wrong for suggesting oddsmakers care about who wins or loses games.

"Oddsmakers only care about splitting the betting public 50/50 on both sides of the line and keeping the commission (a.k.a. juice)," he wrote.

He might have been right about not understanding "the science of oddsmaking". After all, I'm not an oddsmaker. That said, I stick to my assertion that oddsmakers (a.k.a. sportbooks) often do care about who wins games.

Granted, as a general rule, sportsbooks try to balance their action so that they're not exposed to big losses. However, there are times when this is difficult to pull off, regardless of how much a line has moved. There are also times when that general rule is ignored and a book pursues risk.

Generally speaking, it's safe to say the books in Vegas are risk-adverse. Unlike in the past when the wise guys ruled the town, Vegas is now corporate and the goal of most casinos is to make as much money as possible with as little risk as possible.

Thus, Vegas sportsbooks try everything in their power to balance the action. They're satisfied simply collecting the juice. But these profits are small, especially compared to the take from other casino games, namely slot machines.

Because the profits at Vegas sportsbooks are so small, you could argue that many casinos operate sportsbooks simply as a novelty to keep the tourists happy.

With a growing aversion to risk, it should come as no surprise that Vegas bookmakers have been panicking this NFL season.

Despite huge pointspreads, a disproportionate percentage of bettors are still laying their money on favorites like the Eagles, Colts, Pats and Vikings rather than the dogs (a common trend for the largely recreational bettors that visit Vegas).

And much to the dismay of the books, those favorites are finding ways to cover the thick chalk. In fact, prior to Week 7, the four teams listed above are a combined 16-2-2 (88 percent) against the spread. (The tables turned dramatically in Week 7, but more on that later.)

The result has been an early-season beating for the books, and a bonanza for bettors.

While Vegas increasingly hates risk, it's no longer a major player in the sports betting world. Most of the betting action now takes place offshore where sportsbooks are not as obsessed about balance. In fact, some books encourage exposure to risk because the rewards can be so much bigger.

Consider MySportsbook.com. On its website, the book has odds pages which actually display the amount of action it's getting on games. In other words, you can see how much action the book is taking on both sides of a pointspread, moneyline or over/under.

One look at these numbers and it's obvious MySportsbook.com does not balance every game. In fact, far from it.

Take last weekend's matchup between St. Louis and Miami. By game time on Sunday, 83 percent of the betting action at MySportsbook.com was on the Rams; only 17 percent was on Miami.

What's interesting is that MySportsbook.com opened the pointspread with Miami at +6 1/2. By game time, the spread had lowered to +5.

That goes contrary to the balancing theory. If MySportsbook.com had wanted to balance the action, it would have given Miami more points; instead, it took away 1 1/2. World Series odds are now up as well.

MySportsbook.com exposed itself to even more to risk, and rolled the dice on the underdog Dolphins. Why? I contacted a representative with the book to find out. His answer was simple.

"The line moved early based on 'smart money' from sharp players," said Jeff Gilroy, a spokesperson for the book. "We also knew from early in the week that we would need Miami, therefore (we dropped) the spread to encourage Rams money.

"At the end of the day, we liked the home team."

So the conclusion is this: MySportsbook.com respected the sharp action, and gambled that the sharp bettors had a better take on the game than the recreational bettors, who were hammering the visiting Rams.

In the end, the gamble paid off. Miami, desperate for a win in front of its home fans, pounded the overrated Rams, who are terrible on the road and even worse on grass. Final score: 31-14 Fish.

MySportsbook.com was also heavily exposed on numerous favorites in Week 7, including Philadelphia, Seattle and Denver. All three failed to cover.

The fact that sportsbooks are exposed to risk on certain games is really nothing new. The fact, that Sportsbook.com is willing to show the public where it's exposed is intriguing.

Armed with this type of information, bettors can make more educated wagers. They can get an idea where the sharp money is going and conversely where the public money is headed.

MySportsbook.com is opening up its cashbox, letting bettors look inside and challenging them to take their best shot at grabbing the cash.

To visit this online football betting got to MySportsbook.com for all your football betting odds needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.

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