Reds head to Milwaukee to battle surging Brewers

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07/26/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Cincinnati Reds try to defeat the Milwaukee Brewers for the seventh straight time when the National League Central rivals open a three-game set this evening at Miller Park.

The Reds, who swept a two-game set from the Brewers earlier in the year after taking the final four matchups between the two last season, come into tonight's tilt following their league-worst 12th shutout loss on Sunday. Wandy Rodriguez spun seven innings of one-hit ball for Houston as the Reds fell, 4-0, to the Astros at Minute Maid Park.

Mike Leake (7-2) suffered the loss after yielding all four runs on seven hits while walking three and fanning three over 6 1/3 innings for the Reds, who fell a half-game back of the St. Louis Cardinals for first place in the NL Central.

Hoping to get the Reds back into first place tonight will be righty Bronson Arroyo, who is 10-5 with a 4.26 earned run average. Arroyo was denied his 11th win Wednesday against Washington, as the Nationals ripped him for seven runs and six hits in 5 2/3 innings.

Arroyo has faced the Brewers 20 times (17 starts) and is 9-6 with a 3.80 ERA against them.

Arroyo will be facing a Milwaukee team that has won six straight at home and four straight overall after sweeping a three-game set from Washington over the weekend, culminating with an 8-3 win on Sunday. Casey McGehee hit a three-run homer and Rickie Weeks clubbed a two-run shot for the Brewers, who have won seven of their last 10 overall, while Jonathan Lucroy went 2-for-4 with an RBI and a run scored.

Dave Bush (5-8) earned the win for allowing three runs -- two earned -- on six hits with seven strikeouts and did not issue a walk over six innings.

"I like to work quickly and throw a lot of strikes and kind of force the tempo," Bush said. "Any win is a good one, no matter who it's against."

Getting the call for Milwaukee this evening will be left-handed veteran Randy Wolf, who set dubious career highs in his last outing when he allowed 12 runs and 13 hits in 5 2/3 innings Wednesday in Pittsburgh. The loss dropped him to 7-9 while raising his ERA to 5.20.

However, Wolf has had success against the Reds, having gone 9-2 with a 3.11 ERA in 16 starts.

The Reds also won seven straight games over the Brewers in 2002.

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Is there such a thing as a trap game in the NFL?

I once asked that question to Pete Korner, who at the time was office manager and a senior linesmaker for Las Vegas Sports Consultants.

Korner almost ripped my head off. There is no such thing as a trap game, he loudly berated me. It’s a myth. The numbers are made using power ratings, he said.

There are trap games, though. They just might not be what you think. The perception is of a good team, say Philadelphia, laying a small number against New Orleans.

Using the highly-respected power ranking from The Gold Sheet, you’d find the Eagles with a power rating of 4 and the Saints at 8. When you factor the game being played in New Orleans, you could see why the line opened so short at less than a field goal.

For some, this makes it enticing to take the Eagles. That’s not a real trap game, though.

A real trap game, says professional gambler Dave Malinsky, is thinking you’re getting value betting a bad team, which brings us to the Oakland Raiders-Denver Broncos matchup.

The Raiders are +15 in this long-standing division rivalry. Denver is on a short week having dispatched Baltimore Monday. However, the Raiders haven’t covered the spread their last 10 games.

Many bettors don’t trust the Raiders to give a full effort. Few think much of Art Shell and his Oakland’s coaching staff.

So oddsmakers have to do something to make Oakland attractive if they hope to get equal action.

Now Malinsky is a value shopper. But he won’t touch the Raiders even getting more than two touchdowns.

“I try to eliminate the undisciplined, unfocused teams because they’re the ones most likely to suffer the bad beats,” he said.

Near the top of Malinsky’s list of stay-away teams is the Miami Dolphins, who have yet to cover a spread this season.

“Whatever you think of Nick Saban, you have to look at the penalties and turnovers,” Malinsky said.

It’s easy to point out the Dolphins failed to get the money this past week against New England because Olindo Mare missed a field goal and had another field goal blocked. But even though the Dolphins outgained the Patriots, 283-213, they committed eight penalties.

Bad teams not only cost themselves victories, but pointspread covers as well. The Arizona Cardinals and Green Bay Packers are two more examples.

The Cardinals couldn’t have been in a better position this past Sunday, up 14-0 at home against a mediocre Kansas City Chiefs squad. But they couldn’t hold it. The Packers got a push against St. Louis, but also could have won losing by three when Brett Favre fumbled at the St. Louis 11-yard line with 44 seconds left.

“The Packers were in a position to beat Philadelphia, too,” Malinsky said. “But they couldn’t even cover double digits.

“These teams just make mistakes and it costs you … they always will look good from a value standpoint. They really will. But that’s the trap.”

Houston and Tennessee rank among the six-worst teams. Malinsky wouldn’t be afraid to take either of these teams, however, if the price were high enough.

The Texans are bad, Malinsky said, but they have some discipline. The Titans showed they could not only come up with an outstanding game plan, but execute it as well, losing by one to the Colts on the road as an 18 ?-point underdog this past Sunday.

“Jeff Fisher is a worker,” Malinsky said of the Titans coach. “I’m not sure how hard Art Shell wants to work when he gets out of bed.”

Fisher, though, could be out as Tennessee coach after this season. Is he still worth backing in the right spot, with the right price, as a lame duck coach?

“It’s in his nature to keep working hard and not worry about any possible lame duck status,” Malinsky said. “He’s coaching for his resume.”

Note: Monday night game will be picked Monday. Lines used are from football betting lines.