FC Dallas snaps Real's 10-game unbeaten streak

Soccer Betting Lines

07/17/2010 - Frisco, TX (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Brek Shea and Atiba Harris scored in the second half and FC Dallas snapped Real Salt Lake's 10-game unbeaten streak with a 2-0 win Saturday night at Pizza Hut Park.

Shea opened the scoring in the 69th minute and Harris followed in the 76th, as FC Dallas extended its own unbeaten run to six matches. Dallas (6-2-7) has won four of its last five Major League Soccer matches.

Real (9-4-3), which lost for the first time in MLS since April 24 at Columbus, also had its five-game shutout streak ended. RSL last allowed a goal on May 29 in a 4-1 win over Kansas City.

FC Dallas debuted striker Milton Rodriguez, and the Colombian nearly scored in the early stages when he headed off the crossbar from the edge of the six-yard box.

RSL defender Jamison Olave managed to beat Dallas goalie Kevin Hartman in the half, but Shea was there to clear the ball off the line to keep the match even at halftime.

Shea finished on the other end midway through the second half for his fourth goal of the year. Rodriguez helped create the goal with a deflected shot that Shea hammered home from the top-left edge of the six-yard box in the 69th.

Real should have tied the match in the 74th when Nat Borchers somehow lifted a wide-open header in front of an empty net over the crossbar from just a couple yards out.

Harris then sealed Dallas' victory in the 76th when he scored his third of the season. Heath Pearce played in a low cross from the left and, after a touch by Shea, Harris hit a turning shot into the bottom right from five yards out.

Real last allowed two goals in a game in a 2-1 loss to the Los Angeles Galaxy in mid-April. Real wasted an opportunity to move within three points of L.A. for first place in the Western Conference and could lose more ground on Sunday when the Galaxy visit D.C. United.

Dallas, which is tied with L.A. for the fewest losses in MLS, climbed within five points of Real for second place in the West.

Both clubs return to action July 24, when FC Dallas visits Toronto FC and Real shots Chivas USA.

Bettingfootballgamble Soccer Betting News

<< Walker leads 17-hit attack, Pirates finally beat Astros
Pittsburgh, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Neil Walker collected three hits, scored three times and knocked in a pair of runs as Pittsburgh pounded out 17 hits in a 12-6 win over Houston in the middle meeting of a three-game set. Jose Tabata and

<< Covello still leads suspended Players Cup
Winnipeg, MB (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Vince Covello is one-over through 11 holes, but is still in the first during Saturday's suspended third round of The Players Cup. Covello is nine-under par for the championship and one shot ahead

<< Volquez solid in return to mound; Reds rout Rockies
Cincinnati, OH (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Edinson Volquez made a triumphant return to the mound in his first start in more than a year and was backed by four home runs, as the Reds crushed the Rockies, 8-1, at Great American Ball Park. Volqu

<< One More Laugh captures Meadowlands Pace
East Rutherford, NJ (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - One More Laugh, driven by Tim Tetrick, turned the tables on Rock N Roll Heaven to win Saturday's $1 million Meadowlands Pace at The Meadowlands. The three-year-old gelding covered the mile in

<< Youkilis' sac fly lifts Red Sox over Rangers in 11th
Boston, MA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Kevin Youkilis' sacrifice fly in the 11th inning gave the Boston Red Sox a 3-2 win over the Texas Rangers in the third contest of a four-game set from Fenway Park. With Alexi Ogando (3-1) on the mo

Edwards spins out Keselowski and takes Gateway win >>
Madison, IL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The feud between Carl Edwards and Brad Keselowski in NASCAR reached another boiling point on Saturday when Edwards spun out Keselowski for the lead coming out of the final turn of the last lap to win

Kansas City holds on for draw at Colorado >>
Commerce City, CO (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Davy Arnaud scored in the 20th minute and the Kansas City Wizards held on for a 1-1 draw against the Colorado Rapids on Saturday night at Dick's Sporting Goods Park. Kansas City earned its first road win

Rivera's HR lifts Angels to win over M's >>
Anaheim, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Juan Rivera went 3-for-4 and hit the go-ahead home run in the seventh inning, lifting the Angels to a 7-6 victory over the Seattle Mariners. Mike Napoli went 2-for-4 with a home run for the Angels, who had

Sandoval, Giants handle Mets >>
San Francisco, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Pablo Sandoval went 3-for-4 with three RBI and a run scored as the San Francisco Giants took an 8-4 decision over the New York Mets in the third of a four-game set. Buster Posey hit a solo home run an

Padres hit four homers in win over Diamondbacks >>
San Diego, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Tony Gwynn Jr. hit his second inside-the- park home run of the season and Yorvit Torrealba drove in four, as the San Diego Padres beat the Arizona Diamondbacks, 8-5, at Petco Park. Gwynn, who has onl

How to bet pro football

There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.

These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.

Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.

Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.

Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.

Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.

The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?

To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.

Home vs. Away Teams

Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.

Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.

Price ranges

Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.

The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.

Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.

Playoff teams

It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.

Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.

This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.

Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.

Scoring defense and scoring offense

Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.

Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.

There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.

The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.

Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.

Scoring margin

An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.

In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.

Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.

In sum

Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.

The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.

To visit this sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your Sportsbook accepts Visa needs.